The Coin Toss Predictions

About four years ago I was trying to explain to my then 8-year old daughter (who is a rabid football fan) that all the predictions, prognostications and pre-season bluster from so-called "experts" was about as accurate as flipping a coin.  So, to prove a point, I did just that.

On a lovely late Summer afternoon I sat down with her and two copies of the NFL schedule.  With one I did my best picking every NFL game, one-by-one, including the occasional crazy upset and came away with records for all 32 teams.  Then I did the same thing with a coin.  Heads for home teams and tails for away teams.  We tucked those predictions away and in January pulled them back out to find that Daddy had correctly predicted 7 of the 12 playoff teams that year...the coin had predicted 8 of 12. 

So every year since, my daughter and I do our "Coin Toss Predictions" and every year we are pleasantly surprised by the accuracy we have over various "experts" in the field of NFL prognostications.  Below you will find this year's Coin Toss Predictions. Division champs are designated with (D) and wild cards are designated with (W). Some quick observations follow.  I'll say this now...the coin told you so...


AFC East
New England - 10-6 (D)
Buffalo - 10-6 (W)
NY Jets - 7-9
Miami - 7-9

AFC North
Cincinnati - 9-7 (D)
Pittsburgh - 8-8
Cleveland - 7-9
Baltimore - 4-12

AFC South
Houston - 11-5 (D)
Jacksonville - 9-7 (W)
Tennessee - 6-10
Indianapolis - 4-12

AFC West
Kansas City - 12-4 (D)
Denver - 8-8
San Diego - 7-9
Oakland - 4-12


NFC East
Philadelphia - 11-5 (D)
Washington - 10-6 (W)
Dallas - 9-7 (W)
NY Giants - 6-10

NFC North
Green Bay - 10-6 (D)
Chicago - 8-8
Detroit - 8-8
Minnesota - 7-9

NFC South
Atlanta - 10-6 (D)
New Orleans - 8-8
Tampa Bay - 8-8
Carolina - 7-9

NFC West
Arizona - 10-6 (D)
Seattle - 8-8
San Francisco - 7-9
St. Louis - 5-11


Some quick observations:

*The coin had Dallas start 7-0 but then crash and burn, going 2-7 the rest of the way.  The coin has them making the playoffs though (and beating the Giants twice).

*Speaking of the defending champs...6-10?  The only NFC East team not in the playoffs?  That's not impossible but would be a SB hangover of epic proportions.

*The coin had Green Bay start off 1-4 but rally to still win 10 games and claim the division crown once again. 

*The coin had the Saints at 4-2 in their first six games and 4-6 the rest of the way.  Why is this interesting?  Because this year after six games the Saints will be making their second head coaching change of the season when interim head coach Joe Vitt comes off suspension. Hmm...

*The coin has Eagles coach Andy Reid lose for the first time the week after the team's bye week.  He's currently 13-0 but the coin has them lose at home to Atlanta on 10/28.  (Side note: They better not.  I have tickets for that game.)