SAN DIEGO -- County officials have repeatedly been warned that too few firefighters combined with dry back-country brush and Santa Ana winds could produce uncontrollable wildfires nearly identical to those that killed 16 people and destroyed 2,469 homes last month.
Despite the warnings, local leaders and voters both failed to implement recommendations that fire officials said would help fight a massive wildfire.
San Diego city and county records shows that fire officials over the last two decades have predicted that firefighters could be helpless to stop even a small brush fire because the region did not have enough firefighters and water-dropping helicopters.
The warnings came in reports from the fire agencies seeking more funding and in task force studies after previous wildfires. Voters have rejected repeated proposals for funding improved fire protection with increased taxes.
On Thursday, in the wake of the Cedar fire, Mayor Dick Murphy announced the formation of another commission to examine how to improve firefighting.
The task force will consider brush clearing, better communication and gear, more firefighters and better coordination with other departments -- the same issues that another task force examined after a 1985 blaze.
The Cedar and Paradise fires started in the kind of terrain where officials had warned that such disasters might begin. The blazes spread in the manner officials had predicted, exposing weaknesses long noted in the fire protection system.
"Those fires were both predicted and predictable," said county Supervisor Dianne Jacob, who has long pushed for improved fire services.
San Diego city fire officials were so concerned last year about the vulnerability of Scripps Ranch that they asked Bill Clayton, a division chief with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, for a study on how to defend the neighborhood from the flames.
Clayton produced a computer model of a blaze and foresaw with eerie accuracy the path that the Cedar fire, which destroyed more than 345 homes in Scripps Ranch, would take.
The Clayton report predicted that flames would race over hilly slopes, ignite the neighborhood's stately eucalyptus trees and destroy 250 to 300 homes before they could be contained.
That report was only the latest prediction of disaster.
In 1982, for example, then-Fire Chief Earle Roberts warned the City Council that San Diego was playing "Russian roulette" by not providing more resources to protect Scripps Ranch from a wildfire that would start in remote rural areas and race southward.
He predicted the time the city would be most vulnerable: on the weekends when staffing levels were at their lowest in the San Diego Fire Department. The Cedar fire erupted on a Saturday afternoon and was destroying homes in Scripps Ranch and Tierrasanta by midday Sunday.
In 1984, Roberts, who had been hired from Phoenix to improve the San Diego Fire Department, abruptly resigned. He complained that his recommendations had been ignored by city officials and that he had been unable to get the attention of his boss, then-City Manager Ray Blair.
Roberts said the city had too few firefighters, an inadequate number of fire engines and a system that relied on overtime to keep fire stations fully staffed.
Many of the problems that he and others cited persist today.
Although several new fire stations have been built, including one in Scripps Ranch, the Fire Department still has one of the lowest ratios of firefighters to population of any major city in the country. In outlying areas, San Diego County relies on a patchwork of more than 60 fire agencies, some staffed by volunteers.
Twenty-one of 32 ballot measures to increase taxes to improve fire protection in the county since 1996 have failed -- several in areas devastated by the recent fires.