Such an increase would have to be followed by another 25-cent increase two years later to meet "farebox recovery" targets. Maryland law requires that transit systems cover 35 percent of their costs through passenger payments, though that goal is missed more often than it is met.
The question of raising MTA fares is a perennial one in Annapolis. Rural and outer suburban legislators, whose constituents seldom use transit services, tend to push for higher recovery rates, while urban and inner suburban lawmakers resist.
Sen. Nathaniel J. McFadden, a Baltimore Democrat who represents some of the city's most transit-dependent riders, said that while he expects fares to go up, a 65-cent increase would be cause severe problems for low-income workers in a limited job market.
"We'll have to have discussions of something more moderate," he said.
But Del. Anthony O'Donnell, the House minority leader, said the burden of paying for transit systems falls disproportionately on Marylanders such as his Southern Maryland constituents.
"Farebox recovery needs to be part of the discussion. We cannot continue to subsidize these very expensive transit systems as they are," the Republican said.
The O'Malley administration, faithful to its largely urban constituency, has never raised fares but has been challenged by general pressure on transportation budgets. The question of fares is likely to come to a head in the next session, during which the legislature is expected to consider a possible increase in the gas tax and fees that largely fall on motorists.
State Transportation Secretary Beverley K. Swaim-Staley said the administration expects there to be a connection between fares and other revenues in the session that begins Jan. 11. But she indicated the administration would resist any drastic fare increase over the short term because of its impact on low-income Marylanders.
"We'd have to be very clear about the impact that would have on a very critical part of our population and their ability to access jobs," she said.
Sen. James E. DeGrange Sr., chairman of the Senate subcommittee that oversees the transportation budget, said he believes the legislature would not accept any move to lower the 35 percent requirement, noting that the farebox recovery target has gradually been moved down from 50 percent. But he indicated it might not have to jump to $2.25 in one step.
"They do need to meet that 35 percent because our Transportation Trust Fund is in need of help," the Anne Arundel County Democrat said. "I still think there's ways of phasing this in."
The MTA, which was required under last year's budget legislation to file a report this month, said the combined fare recovery for Metro, light rail, the bus system and other local services is expected to reach 29 percent during the fiscal year ending June 30. That's slightly up from a low of 28 percent two years ago.
To quickly reach and maintain the statutory goal of 35 percent through fares alone, the MTA said, the agency would have to raise the base fare from the current $1.60 — where it has stayed since being increased under then-Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. — to $2.25 in the next budget year. The rate would hit $2.50 by July 2014.
An alternative, the MTA said, would be to achieve the farebox goal entirely through service cuts. But without an accompanying fare increase, that would require cuts of more than 20 percent in basic services — bringing layoffs of union-represented and management employees.
The MTA said such a move would also require the sale of part of the bus fleet, which would mean the agency would have to repay the federal government for its past help in paying for those vehicles.
Transit officials argued against a cuts-only approach, saying it would set off a "cycle of declining service and declining ridership [that] should be avoided at all costs." The agency did not outline any intermediate strategy that would mix service cuts and fare increases.
In recent years, the state has maintained the reach of its transit services largely by devoting an increasing share of the overall transportation budget to transit operations at the expense of highway projects.