A Baltimore Sun survey of the 47-member state Senate - considered the critical chamber where the issue will be decided - has revealed a narrow majority opposed to repealing capital punishment.
O'Malley, a Democrat, will testify tomorrow before the 11-member Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee, which twice in two years did not advance a repeal bill to the Senate floor, including in a 5-5 vote two years ago.
Two committee members, Republican Sens. Bryan W. Simonaire and Alex X. Mooney, say they are weighing the issue. Both recently said they have no moral objection to capital punishment and believe that it should be used in some circumstances.
"In the most violent, heinous crimes, it is still a good option," said Simonaire, who along with Mooney voted against a repeal two years ago. "My basis is that I am a death penalty proponent."
Simonaire, whose district is in Anne Arundel County, said his chief concern - something he plans to ask questions about at tomorrow's hearing - is the possibility of executing an innocent person.
"That's my struggle," he said. "Are there enough problems to warrant a repeal, or would reforms work?"
Mooney, who represents Washington and Frederick counties, said he opposes a total repeal but would consider approving legislation that retains capital punishment for some kinds of killers, including a prisoner who kills a correctional officer.
Despite O'Malley's pledge to use his considerable influence to abolish the death penalty in Maryland, the governor had not reached out as of yesterday to those two potential swing voters.
"If he is doing everything in his power, it's not with me," Simonaire said.
Mooney said he had not talked to the governor about the death penalty, or any other legislative matter, this year.
The repeal movement gained momentum in December when a gubernatorial commission concluded that the death penalty in Maryland is so flawed that it must be abolished.
The commission, headed by former U.S. Attorney General Benjamin R. Civiletti, cited in a report the possibility of executing an innocent person, huge financial costs, and racial and regional biases as compelling reasons to eliminate capital punishment. Civiletti is expected to testify at tomorrow's hearing.
Sen. Lisa A. Gladden, a Baltimore Democrat and a co-sponsor O'Malley's repeal bill, is pondering a relatively rare procedural move that would bring the legislation to the floor of the Senate before the committee votes. O'Malley has also raised that option.
Gladden would need 16 senators to sign a petition to accomplish the maneuver.
"I have a right to do that," she said. "But do I want to do that? I don't know what 16 people would be brave enough to stand with me."
Such a move would probably anger some Senate leaders and risk scaring off wavering lawmakers.
Getting the measure out of the committee would be the first of several hurdles. The Sun survey found that 19 senators are inclined to vote in favor of O'Malley's bill, while 24 oppose a total repeal of the death penalty. Four - including Simonaire - declined to answer as to how they would vote.