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6/30/11 — Today is the USDA report, long awaited as it contains the projected planted acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  These ...

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By Ray Grabanski

Markets: USDA report to dictate grains?

Commodities reversing lower???

March 8, 2012

 3/7/12 -- Last week we suffered through significant downside weekly reversals in the charts of crude oil, gold, and silver.  The downside weekly reversals were probably most impressive in the metals, with huge selling pressure after running to recent highs.  That could portend some trouble for the commodities going forward into spring.

  • SAM Drought, FSU Bitter Cold Overdone???

    February 2, 2012

     2/1/12 - The recent South American (SAM) drought has been receiving a great deal of attention recently, with some media outlets claiming the SAM "drought" has impacted yields severely in affected areas, and eminent drastic cuts in SAM production estimates are forthcoming. 

  • South American drought re-emerges

    January 26, 2012

      01/25/12 - Dry weather in southern SAM has once again emerged, with Argentina and southern Brazil once again seeing a dry forecast in place for the coming 7 days, with little to no rain in the forecast for the driest areas of  SAM.  That is providing support to the market recently, with prices moving up into the gaps created when USDA's Jan report hit, with its bearish implications of more US and world ending stocks. 

  • Markets: Is the bottom in???

    October 20, 2011

     10/20/11 — Grains have rallied back nicely from lows in early October, with last week's gains over a dollar in soybeans, and accompanying gains in wheat and corn.  

  • Rally, but negative world news

    October 13, 2011

    10/13/11 — Grains have rallied recently, with Tuesday's limit up move in corn (40c gains) and large rally in other grains pushing grains up in the recent 7 day period.  That has pushed corn 70c above its lows of the Sept.30 report day, a recovery that was nice and means a lot to the bottom line of corn producers!!!  

  • Huge losses in grains

    September 22, 2011

    Recently we have suffered huge losses in grains, as the high prices of  summer give way to the price pressures of another harvest in the Midwest.  

  • Sept. Report: Won't run out of grain!

    September 15, 2011

     Last week we talked about how the USDA Sept. report may hold some surprises.  Well, the crop sizes in corn were about as anticipated, with the 148 bu yield and 5 bu/acre yield cut were well anticipated by the trade.  However, the soybean production estimate was a surprise in that the yield included a hike in production, to 41.8 bu/acre.  That further indicates that USDA "jumped the gun" on its August huge cuts in production, with a nearly 2 bu/acre cut in yield in that one surprising report.  Now, USDA has to quickly reverse that ill advised yield estimate, and it very well might be possible that USDA will be hiking soybean yield estimates in all future reports.

  • All Bullish News - A Market Top???

    August 25, 2011

     8/25/11 —  Recently, grain markets have received all bullish news, with media reports of smaller-than-expected yields likely for corn and soybeans in 2011, the Pro Farmer tour reinforcing those beliefs, and USDA's August report numbers shockingly low for corn and soybeans

  • Risk management with world markets

    August 19, 2011

     US farmers have dealt with risk management issues similar to this year's many times over, including 1980 and 1988 droughts where prices soared to 2x original prices in just a few short months.  In 1993 flooding and drought also caused major problems, and 2003 had a late season drought that hurt soybean production, sending prices soaring higher.  

  • USDA Report: Bullish Corn and Soybeans, Neutral Wheat

    August 11, 2011

    The USDA report was due out this morning, and may show some surprises in this report, especially the corn and soybean yield numbers.   Expectations are for a significant drop in both corn and soybean yield potential, with corn down to near 155.5 and soybeans at less than 43 bushels.

  • Markets react to weather, weather, weather!

    July 21, 2011

    7/20/11 — The market now is dictated by three main items:  Weather, weather, and weather!!!  After all, its July and the heat dome of doom has set itself up in the central corn belt where it is providing heat to nearly the entire US growing area.  While that is of some concern, it also is accompanied by a forecast that allows some showers and rainstorms to continue to come across the US, which provides a little different scenario than "hot and dry."  Instead, it is "hot and wet" for a good share

  • Markets: Grain bulls on the run

    July 7, 2011

    7/6/11 - Grain market bulls have recently been on the run, hoping to avoid being turned into steers in recent weeks as they have lost a lot of equity.  Most of that was due to the recent USDA acreage report, where it was found that a lot more acreage was switched to corn from the March 1 intentions due to the high prices.  If planting conditions had been good, we could have had another 1-2 million acres of corn, but as it was only 100,000 more acres than the intentions report in March appeared.

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