You won't notice much difference, but the National Hurricane Center's cone of error has shrunk - again.
The center determines the size of the cone by averaging out its forecast track errors over the past five seasons - and in the past five years storm path predictions have become steadily more accurate.
Despite the progress, about two-thirds of the tropical storms stay within the cone and a third don’t, center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.
“It is very important to remember that the storm can be anywhere in that cone 67 percent of the time, and is in no way representative of the areas that would feel the impacts of the storm," he said.
In the upcoming season, the cone will be about 9 percent smaller than last year:
The part of the cone that shows when a storm is five days out will be 526 miles across, 24 miles less than last year; four days out, 406 miles across, or 30 miles less and three days out, 294 miles across, or 36 miles less.
The part of the cone that shows when a storm is two days out will be 212 miles across, or 14 miles less than last year; 36 hours out, 166 miles across, or 16 miles less; 24 hours out, 120 miles across, or 8 miles less; and for 12 hours out, 76 miles across, or 3 miles less.
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